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ICBM Roulette

October 26, 2010

So we only have like 450 ICBMs still active.
I am greatly disturbed by this, with modern advances in anti-ICBM technology, we simply aren’t packing enough of a punch to overwhelm any serious anti-sat / anti-ICBM system.
We need several times this number (I would feel comfortable with 5,000 – 10,000 launch vehicles) to continue to… offer a MAD (Mutual Assured Destruction) deterrent against China, Russia, France, Iran, Pakistan, and India. All of which have ICBM technology and unknown anti-missile systems.

Against modern ideas of anti-sat technology I don’t think we could count on 1 in 10 of those rockets making it to MIRV deployment of which we could expect significant attrition during re-entry, lets say 1 in 10 of those get through.  So were looking at (with an average of 10 MIRVs per rocket) 45 medium yield strikes against an enemy, utilizing our entire ICBM arsenal. And I feel like I’m being optimistic with those numbers right now, much less in 5 – 10 years. We could be looking at 4 – 5 successful strikes after utilizing our entire arsenal, which is hardly a deterrent against communist enemies who would consider the 2 or 3 million people that would kill an acceptable loss, or last week’s purge depending on their attitude at the time.

I am severely uncomfortable with this situation and prognosis, which I grant you is only applicable to the USSR Russians and the Communist Chinese, but give it 10 – 20 years and Pakistan, Iran (if they live that long), India and the rest will be right there with us. Which I think is totally unacceptable, we need to up arm and do it quick.

… oh and apparently 1/9th of our missiles had a glitch.

http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/10/10/power-failure-shuts-down-sqaudron-of-icbms/65207/

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